Taipei, Taiwan (10 March 2009)
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released today reveals that Taiwan employers are forecasting a gloomy labor market for job seekers in the second quarter of 2009. For the second quarter in succession, those employers expecting to trim payrolls will outnumber Taiwanese employers expecting to add staff. Employers in all of the world’s other major labor markets are expressing similar pessimism, saying they will add fewer employees to their payrolls compared to one year ago.
Terence Liu, General Manager of Manpower Inc. in Taiwan explains the severe decline of local workforce: “The Taiwan employment picture for the second quarter of 2009 is noticeably weaker and the vast majority of employers will freeze headcount before hiring or further reducing staff. Unless they see more positive economic signals they will not add employees and, until then, it will be a rougher road for job seekers.”
According to Terence, Taiwan’s second quarter Net Employment Outlook is the least optimistic forecast since the survey started in the country in Q2 2005. “Employers in Taiwan, who last quarter were only starting to feel the impact of the downturn, appear to be preparing themselves for a very difficult year,” Terence says. “However, the percentage of Taiwan companies planning no change to their headcount is larger than before. This may suggest a much needed pause in downsizing in the second quarter.”
Of the 1,039 employers interviewed in Taiwan this quarter, 10 percent anticipate increasing their workforces, while 15 percent expect to reduce their payrolls; 70 percent say they plan no changes in staff numbers. This quarterly survey of employer hiring intentions shows a weak Net Employment Outlook of -5%. When the Net Employment Outlook is adjusted for seasonal variations to be removed, it stands at -10%, which is a 9 percentage point decrease when compared to last quarter (Q1 2009) and an 31 percentage point decline when compared to the same time last year (Q2 2008). Employers in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector are reporting the most optimistic -
hiring intentions (+14%) for this quarter. Conversely, employers in the Manufacturing and Services sectors report the weakest hiring intentions for this quarter, with Net Employment Outlooks of -13% and -9%, respectively.
Focusing on the global labor market, employers in 13 of 33 countries and territories still expect some positive hiring activity in the coming quarter; however, hiring expectations are considerably weaker in all countries and territories surveyed compared to this time last year. Employers in 23 countries and territories report their weakest hiring plans since the surveys were established there by Manpower. “Hiring forecasts from all of the G7 countries are notably weaker compared to 12 months ago confirming that the global labor market will continue to contract – only Outlooks from employers in Canada and Germany have not slipped into negative territory,” said Jeffrey A. Joerres, Chairman and CEO of Manpower Inc. “Meanwhile, hiring patterns in the U.S. have declined to those seen during the recession of 1982, yet a significant number of employers surveyed anticipate no change in their employment intentions. This tells us that in this difficult economic environment, employers are struggling to manage the tension between generating a profit and maintaining their workforce infrastructure.”
Of the eight countries and territories surveyed in the Asia Pacific region, employers in India are reporting the strongest hiring intentions. Employers in Singapore, New Zealand and Taiwan expect the deepest cuts to their payrolls compared to three months ago. “The caution that began to set in across Asia Pacific during the first three months of the year is expected to accelerate in the second quarter. Despite the fact that this period is typically a peak hiring season in many of the markets we survey, our data shows extremely weak hiring ahead for the region, similar to the pace seen in 2003 during the SARS pandemic,” said Joerres. “The Manufacturing sector has been particularly hard hit in China in response to weaker global demand for exports. The picture is similar in Japan, Australia and Singapore where hiring optimism is the weakest since our survey was established.”
Of the 17 countries surveyed in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region, only employers in South Africa, Poland, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, Belgium and Norway are reporting positive, but modest, second-quarter hiring activity. However, in countries where year-over-year comparisons can be made, all expect cutbacks. In comparison to three months ago, only Outlooks from Austria, France and South Africa are relatively stable, while Italian employers report a slightly improved but still negative forecast.
“Companies will continue to come up with creative alternatives to downsizing, such as reduced work weeks, voluntary pay cuts and pay freezes to hold on to the people they have and get through this recession,” said Joerres.
Job prospects throughout the Americas region are decidedly weaker, compared to both the first quarter and one year ago. Hiring is expected to be strongest in Colombia and Peru and weakest in Mexico, where employers are the most pessimistic about adding employees since Manpower began surveying there in 2002.
“Considerable year-over-year declines in the Mining and Transport, Storage, Communication sectors are contributing to the weakest job prospects since we established the survey in Mexico,” said Joerres. “North of the border, the U.S. and Canadian labor markets are expected to contract considerably with Canadian employers in the Manufacturing-Durables sector reporting the slowest hiring pace since the 1991 downturn. Prospects are equally as gloomy for this sector in the U.S., where difficulties in the auto industry continue to force companies throughout the supply chain to keep hiring plans in neutral.”
The next Manpower Employment Outlook Survey will be released on 9 June 2009 to report hiring expectations for the third quarter of 2009. The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is available free of charge to the public through their local Manpower representative in participating countries. To receive e-mail notification when the survey is available each quarter, interested individuals are invited to complete an online subscription form at: http://investor.manpower.com/investors/alerts.cfm..
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