Taipei, Taiwan (9 December 2008)
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released today reveals that Taiwan employers are anticipating a gloomy labor market for job seekers in the first quarter of 2009. Employers in most of the world’s other major labor markets are also less optimistic about hiring in the first quarter, saying they will add fewer employees to their payrolls compared to one year ago.
Of the 1,149 employers interviewed in Taiwan this quarter, 14 percent anticipate increasing their workforces, while 20 percent expect to reduce their payrolls; 64 percent say they plan no changes in staff numbers. This quarterly survey of employer hiring intentions results in a weak Net Employment Outlook of -6%. When the Net Employment Outlook is adjusted for seasonal variations it stands at -1%, which is a 24 percentage point decrease when compared to last quarter (Q4 2008) and a 18 percentage point decline when compared to the same time last year (Q1 2008). Employers in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector are reporting positive hiring intentions (+20%) for this quarter. Employers in the Manufacturing and Transportation & Utilities sectors report the weakest hiring intentions for this quarter, with Net Employment Outlooks of -6% and -3%, respectively.
Terence Liu, General Manager of Manpower Inc. in Taiwan explains the severe decline of local workforce: “According to the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey data, it’s the first time Taiwanese employers have reported negative hiring intentions since we started the survey in 2005”. Under the pessimistic atmosphere among the majority of employers in all industries, Terence offers this advice to job seekers: “Work is like musical chairs; you will never know when you will be the one who can’t find a place to sit. The most realistic solution for individuals to go through this difficult period is to develop an appropriate mindset with employers and adjust the attitude toward working productivity for the sake of re-enforcing your core competencies”.
Terence added that the global financial crisis, rooted in subprime mortgage, has impacted all industries, and downsizing is now occuring around the world, but that employers should resist the urge to cut their current workforce too deeply. “There will definitely be a turning point in the future. When good talent is lost, it’s not easy to find again. That’s why employers should put more emphasis on retaining talent, no matter how limited the budget is.“
As for the employment outlook on global basis, employers in 25 of 33 countries and territories still expect positive hiring activity in the coming quarter; however, those in 30 say they will slow the pace of hiring from three months ago. Year-over-year hiring forecasts are also weaker in 25 countries and territories; and employers in 21 countries and territories are reporting the weakest hiring plans since the surveys were established there by Manpower.
“The global employment picture for the first quarter of the new year is noticeably weaker and the vast majority of employers are telling us that they will take a ‘wait and see’ approach before hiring or further reducing staff. Unless they see more positive economic signals they will not add employees and, until then, it will be a rougher road for job seekers,” said Jeffrey A. Joerres, Chairman and CEO of Manpower Inc. “Interestingly, the number of U.S. companies planning no change in their hiring intentions is considerably higher than during the 2001 recession. This may suggest a much needed pause in downsizing in the first quarter.”
The Manpower survey is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world with interviews of over 71,000 employers. The survey data reveals that employers with the most active first-quarter hiring plans globally – despite generally weaker hiring patterns – are reported in Peru, India, Costa Rica, Canada, Romania, Colombia, South Africa, Australia, Poland, the United States and China. On the other hand, employers in Singapore, Ireland, Spain and Italy reported the least optimistic hiring forecasts. Only employers in Canada, the United States and Switzerland are reporting improved Net Employment Outlooks from three months ago.
Job prospects are decidedly less optimistic in the Asia Pacific region, with employers in all eight countries and territories surveyed reporting weaker hiring plans compared to the previous quarter and one year ago. Although they are weaker quarter-over-quarter, the most favorable job prospects in the region are still found in India, Australia and China. The slowest hiring activity is expected in Singapore and Taiwan, where negative hiring expectations are reported.
“Employers in the Asia Pacific region, who last quarter were only starting to feel the impact of the downturn in the West, appear to be preparing themselves for a very difficult year,” said Joerres. “The Net Employment Outlooks from employers in Singapore, India, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand are the weakest they have ever been and are in stark contrast to just one year ago when these markets were dealing with chronic and widespread talent shortages. Even though times are tough, employers should think creatively about alternative options to lay-offs such as retraining and shorter working weeks. If they cut too deep now they could pay for it later when the upturn occurs.”
The survey data reveals varying degrees of positive hiring activity throughout the Americas region, albeit at a slower pace than three months ago in six of the eight countries surveyed. Hiring is expected to be strongest in Peru, Costa Rica, Canada and the United States with Canadian and American employers reporting slight quarter-over-quarter improvements. Meanwhile, first-quarter hiring sentiments are weakest in Argentina, Guatemala and Mexico, where the Outlook for the latter is at its weakest since Manpower began surveying there in 2002.
“The strong forecast from Canadian employers is being bolstered by continued demand in the Services, Transportation and Construction sectors. In the United States, 67 percent of employers – up eight percentage points from last quarter – are saying they will make no change to their workforces, which is contributing to the relatively stable Outlook there. Interestingly, Outlooks in both countries are being bolstered by a notably optimistic forecast by Wholesale and Retail Trade employers,” said Joerres. “On the other hand, the contraction that began in the final quarter of 2008 in the Mexican labor market is expected to accelerate in the next three months, with employers reporting considerable year-over-year declines in the Construction and Transportation sectors. Job seekers in Mexico City can also expect a much more challenging environment in the quarter ahead.”
Of the 17 countries surveyed in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region, employers in 11 are expecting positive hiring activity; however, hiring in the region is generally expected to be slower with weaker Outlooks reported for 16 countries compared to the fourth quarter of 2008. Employers in Romania, South Africa, Poland, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Belgium are reporting the most optimistic hiring plans while Irish, Italian and Spanish employers are reporting the least optimistic hiring expectations.
“While hiring is expected to slow across Europe, employers haven’t put the brakes on hiring completely. There will be job opportunities, but job seekers will see longer hiring cycles and more people involved in the decision-making process as employers will want to be absolutely sure they have the right fit,” said Joerres. “Some continuing resilience in the Finance and Business Services and Transportation sectors are contributing to the positive hiring activity that is expected in Germany and the Netherlands. Meanwhile, large year-over-year declines in the Construction, Manufacturing and Finance sectors are contributing to the weakest UK hiring forecast in 15 years.”
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